Vanderbilt Pushes for CFP Respect After Analysts Rally Behind Clark Lea

Clark Lea and the Vanderbilt Commodores weren’t supposed to be here—not at 10–2, not in the playoff conversation, and definitely not forcing national analysts to defend their résumé. Yet here they are, standing at the edge of the College Football Playoff bubble with one of the most surprising seasons in the SEC.

Vanderbilt wrapped up the regular season with a strong 45–24 win over rival Tennessee, a victory that should have boosted their national profile. Instead, the Commodores slipped into the No. 14 spot, sitting behind programs like BYU, Miami, and Texas. That ranking didn’t sit well with everyone, especially those who believe the CFP committee is underrating what Vanderbilt accomplished.

Sports economics scholar Tim Groseclose is one of the loudest voices backing the Commodores. Vanderbilt reshared his “Common Opponent Analysis,” which compares the Commodores’ performance against teams both they and their rivals faced. The results? Surprisingly strong.

Groseclose pointed to Oklahoma as the clearest example. Both teams played seven of the same opponents—Texas, Auburn, South Carolina, Tennessee, Alabama, Missouri, and LSU. Vanderbilt’s three-point loss to Texas, once adjusted for home-field advantage, suggests the teams were equal on a neutral field. Oklahoma, meanwhile, lost to Texas 23–6 at a neutral site. The model then projects Vanderbilt as roughly 17 points better than the Sooners.

The comparisons don’t end there. Against Alabama, another team sharing multiple common opponents, the Commodores graded out three points better. Versus Ole Miss, Vanderbilt rated more than 10 points stronger. When you add in the fact that Alabama was blown out by Georgia, it makes Vanderbilt’s case look even more legitimate.

Even SEC commissioner Greg Sankey is campaigning for the league, saying the conference deserves seven teams in the top 14—including Vanderbilt and Texas. The Commodores’ strength-of-record sits at No. 11, and their strength of schedule ranks No. 22. Among playoff hopefuls, they own the fifth-toughest slate in the country.

Still, Vanderbilt finds itself fighting for a voice. Lea has pushed to schedule a last-minute 13th game—something only possible with a Hawaii matchup—to give the committee “one more reason” to look their way. FOX reporter Trey Wallace backed the idea, saying another solid win could change the conversation. ESPN’s Tone Digs even floated the dream matchups: Vanderbilt at Notre Dame, Texas at Miami.

But despite the noise, ESPN still gives the Commodores almost no playoff shot. A 10–2 SEC team with impressive metrics is nowhere near the CFP radar, and Lea admits the frustration is real.

“We attempted to state our case,” he told ESPN Radio. “It feels like our wins don’t matter, and teams who lose to us get punished.”

Vanderbilt may not control what comes next, but one thing is clear: this team earned far more respect than the rankings suggest. Now all that’s left is to wait and see if the committee agrees.

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