Alabama’s path to the College Football Playoff is getting messy

Alabama’s path to the College Football Playoff is getting messy, and the new 12-team format isn’t making things any easier. Even with more playoff spots, the Crimson Tide are still in danger — and surprisingly, BYU might be the team that pushes them out.

Under the new rules, five playoff spots automatically go to the top-ranked conference champions. That includes champs from the SEC, Big Ten, ACC, Big 12, and the best Group of Five team. After those five are locked in, the other seven spots go to the highest-ranked teams that didn’t win their conference.

Alabama is ranked No. 10 and fighting for one of those “at-large” spots. However, BYU, positioned just below them at No. 11, can jump the line completely. If BYU beats Texas Tech in the Big 12 Championship Game, they get an automatic playoff spot no matter what. That means one less seat available for Alabama.

BYU already lost to Texas Tech earlier this month, so the game won’t be easy for them. But if the Cougars pull off the win, Alabama’s playoff chances get much smaller.

Before anything else, Alabama needs to take care of business in the Iron Bowl. They must beat Auburn this weekend — and do it convincingly — to finish 7-1 in SEC play. That would put them in a tie with Georgia and Ole Miss. Due to the defeat of Georgia by Alabama earlier in the season and the good schedule they have, they ought to get the ticket to the SEC Championship Game, which is to be held in Atlanta.

The difficult part is that things become ugly if Alabama loses that SEC championship game to Texas A&M. A third loss would seriously hurt their playoff résumé. The selection committee would likely rank Ole Miss (No. 6) and Georgia (No. 4) higher than Alabama. And even two-loss Texas Tech could be viewed as a better playoff candidate.

This whole situation shows how much the new playoff setup has changed college football. Alabama hasn’t made the playoff in four years, and now they have to worry about what’s happening in the Big 12 just to stay alive.

To the Tide, it is no longer winning that counts. They’ll need some outside help — and maybe a little luck — to keep their postseason hopes alive.

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