Image source: Marcio Jose Sanchez / Associated Press
Fernando Mendoza has long been viewed as the clear favorite to go No. 1 in the 2026 NFL Draft, especially after his dominant college season. With the Las Vegas Raiders currently holding the projected top pick, many assumed the Indiana quarterback would be their future face of the franchise. But a prominent draft insider believes the Raiders could go in a different direction.
On the January 5 episode of The McShay Show, longtime NFL Draft analyst Todd McShay said he would select Oregon quarterback Dante Moore first overall, pushing Mendoza to No. 2 in his early mock draft projections. In McShay’s scenario, Mendoza would land with the New York Jets instead.
“Fernando Mendoza just won the Big Ten championship, beating Ohio State,” McShay said during the show. “Just annihilated Alabama in the Rose Bowl. Heisman Trophy winner. Presumptive number one overall pick. Not here. Dante Moore is my first overall pick going to the Las Vegas Raiders” (McShay Show, Jan. 5).
McShay added that if Moore goes first, Mendoza would be the natural selection for the Jets at No. 2, noting that New York previously explored the idea of trading up before the draft order became clearer. According to McShay, the Jets now wouldn’t need to make that move.
While Mendoza’s résumé is loaded with accolades, McShay explained that much of his success has come from operating within a detailed system built by head coach Curt Cignetti. McShay said Mendoza could help a team win right away, but Moore’s long-term upside may be more appealing for a franchise looking to build sustainably.
NFL scouts reportedly view Moore as a process-driven quarterback with strong intangibles. At 6-foot-3 and just 20 years old, Moore blends arm strength, poise, athletic instinct, and football IQ. Though he lacks extensive experience, evaluators believe his traits translate well to the pro level.
That profile matters for a Raiders team that struggled at quarterback this season. Veteran Geno Smith, now 35, threw 17 interceptions and finished with a 34.2 QBR, the second-lowest mark in the league. Moore, by contrast, has thrown only nine interceptions while posting a 79.0 QBR and is currently valued at $2.3 million. McShay believes that efficiency makes him a strong fit for Las Vegas.
Offensively, Moore could become the centerpiece of the Raiders’ rebuild, potentially pairing with tight end Brock Bowers and running back Ashton Jeanty to form a young core.
Still, Mendoza has no shortage of supporters. Tom Brady recently praised him, saying, “Certainly, his leadership is what stands out to me. It’s his reliability to his teammates.” An NFC East scout echoed that sentiment, pointing to Mendoza’s touch and timing on throws, particularly back-shoulder fades.
One major wrinkle remains: Moore has not declared for the 2026 NFL Draft. ESPN’s Pete Thamel reported that Oregon believes Moore could return for another season. Speaking on The Pat McAfee Show on January 2, Thamel said Moore has acknowledged that possibility publicly.
Moore fueled that speculation further by posting a Christmas Eve video on Instagram that ended with the message, “Come on 5, to be continued.”
After throwing for 3,280 yards and 28 touchdowns this season—tied for 10th-most in the FBS—Moore has already exceeded expectations. Whether he enters the draft or returns to Eugene could ultimately decide whether the Raiders’ draft plans are reality or just early speculation.
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